The major polls were as bad in Australia this year as they were in America back in 2016, another warning sign to Democrats that defeating President Trump in 2020 may be more challenging than thought.
The center-right government of Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison held onto power today after a surprise surge in national elections that left some pundits making comparisons to President Trump’s poll-defying win in 2016.
The upset victory was the latest election to trample predictions by polling firms, which all showed Morrison’s political bloc trailing the opposition Labor Party.
It also carried other uncanny parallels with Trump’s rise.
In Australia’s coal country, Morrison was seen as an ally to protect jobs against a push for more renewable energy and greater efforts to battle climate change.
Morrison drew further support with promises of tax cuts and a tough line on immigration, contrasting with Labor’s call for more social programs and less-stringent migrant policies.
The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, conceded defeat as election returns tipped the scales against him.
Morrison’s Liberal-National coalition was two seats short of a parliamentary majority after about 70 percent of the vote had been counted, according to election officials.
But political analysts said the pattern of voting made it likely that the coalition would emerge Sunday with more than half the seats in parliament.
Confidence was so high in a Labor victory that one betting agency, Sportsbet, said about 70 percent of the wagers were for Labor to regain control after six years in opposition.
“This is a complete shock,” said Zareh Ghazarian, a political science lecturer at Monash University in Melbourne. “We have completely expected an opposite thing for two years. Voters rejected the big picture. They have endorsed a government that has run on a very presidential campaign and on its management of the economy.”
The reelection of Morrison’s government will mean that Australia will set much less ambitious goals in cutting emissions of greenhouse gases.
It will also be firmly supportive of U.S.-led efforts to contain the influence of China and block Chinese technology giant Huawei from government contracts.
Trump offered praise on Twitter:
Congratulations to Scott on a GREAT WIN! https://t.co/IKxDrQmHfV
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 18, 2019
In the end, Morrison’s regular-guy political persona — he was the first Australian prime minister to campaign in baseball caps — and promises to cut taxes proved unexpectedly effective.
“Australians are just deeply conservative — wherever possible, we cling to the status quo,” said Jill Sheppard, a lecturer in politics at the Australian National University. “While we want progress on certain issues, we don’t like major upheavals.”
In August, he became Australia’s fifth prime minister in five years — a sign of how volatile the country’s politics has been over the past few years.
The fact that he escaped punishment from Australian voters for his actions during the party coup surprised many experts.
“I think we’re just getting used to the politics of the absurd,” said Susan Harris-Rimmer, a law professor at Griffith University in Queensland. “It just seems like it’s been a long time since politics was normal anywhere.”