Birds gotta fly, fish gotta swim, and Republicans must carry Arizona in presidential elections.
But a new OH Predictive Insights poll finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in the Grand Canyon State 45 percent to 42 percent.
Republicans have won Arizona five out of the last six presidential elections. In fact, the last Democratic candidate to carry Arizona was Bill Clinton in 1996.
That year former Senator Barry Goldwater, regarded the father of the modern conservative movement, said of Bill Clinton, “If he’d let Hillary run business, I think he’d be better off. I just like the way she acts.”
The fact Trump is struggling in Arizona, where his running mate Mike Pence spent the day campaigning, is puzzling pollsters.
“Donald Trump should be winning in Arizona, however the numbers indicate he likely has stifled his momentum since the GOP convention with the comments regarding the Gold Star family,” said pollster Mike Noble. “It is still surprising that a Democratic presidential candidate would carry Arizona if the election were held today. Arizona should be a reliable red state.”
Nationally Clinton has opened up anywhere from a six to nine point lead over Trump since both political conventions concluded. More importantly in the electoral college, Clinton now leads in most of the important battleground states.
On our 100 day to go electoral vote tracker, we have put Arizona in red for Trump. However, if the polls remain close and Hispanic likely turnout seems high, the traditionally Republican state could turn purple. That would be bad news for the Trump campaign.