Donald Trump turned this presidential election year on its head. No one could have seen his nomination coming a year ago, little alone a potential presidency. But this past week he’s been running close in the polls in several key battleground states.

So, are there “hidden” Trump voters out there that could tip this election his way?

Here are three things that will answer that question:

  1. Pennsylvania. It is a state that hasn’t gone for a Republican since 1988, but Trump has targeted it heavily. The longer it takes the networks to call the Keystone State after the polls close, the better it is for Trump.
  2. Florida. Clinton can make this an early election night if the Sunshine State is called in her favor early in the night. The 29 electoral votes in Florida are really a must-win prize for Trump, and without them he has virtually no path to reaching the minimum 270.
  3. Michigan. Trump believes he’ll carry Ohio (which seems likely) and perhaps he can add this traditionally blue state. The better he does, the more likely we are witnessing a realignment of the industrial Midwest from blue to red. That could alter campaign strategies in the future.
  4. (BONUS) Nevada. Watch the margin of a Clinton win in a state that used to be dependable for Republican candidates. The Hispanic percentage of voters has skyrocketed and the new Democratic alignment could move out west to Nevada, Colorado and Arizona.

Here is our final electoral vote projection based on the averaging of polls from all the key battleground states. Note that it’s close, and could take all night to declare a winner.

Click the map to create your own at


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