|Delegates nominate a candidate at the party convention|
While the state by state results of these tiny caucus states are interesting, it doesn’t give you the reality of what is really happening in the presidential race.
The fact is big states have big delegate numbers. And some of the states coming up – Florida (99 delegates) and Ohio (66 delegates) – are winner-take-all. That means a John Kasich, who only has 35 delegates at the moment, could soon have 101 if he wins his home state.
In order to be the Republican nominee you need a minimum of 1,237 delegates to “clinch” the nomination. As of right now:
Donald Trump 382
Ted Cruz 300
Marco Rubio 128
John Kasich 35
It should be noted that while Cruz has been winning a variety of contests, Rick Santorum in 2012 beat Mitt Romney in Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee but failed to come anywhere close to Romney’s eventual number of delegates. It’s the big states that determine the outcome, and currently Trump is favored heavily in Michigan and he’s ahead of Marco Rubio in Florida and John Kasich in Ohio. If Trump wins those three states he is very likely on his way to clinching the GOP nomination.
In order to be the Democratic nominee you need a minimun of 3,163 delegates to clinch. As of right now:
Hillary Clinton 1,121
Bernie Sanders 481
In Michigan on Tuesday, 147 delegates will be up for grabs for Democrats. The following week the huge winner-take-all states of Florida and Ohio
will take center stage. Clinton is heavily favored in all three states and her now commanding delegate lead over Sanders will become insurmountable.