A well known nonpartisan technology and media company is making the case for Republican delegates to take a serious look at Ohio Gov. John Kasich should the GOP convention become deadlocked in July.
The new projected electoral vote map by Morning Consult shows Kasich, who has only won Ohio in the primaries and has hitched his presidential ambitions to a contested GOP convention, would easily beat Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton in the general election.
“The findings signal that an election between Clinton and Kasich could shift some campaign focus towards the Midwest and away from traditional swing states of recent elections such as Florida, Iowa, Nevada and Virginia,” said the analysis.
Their map shows Kasich beating Clinton strongly in the Midwest and winning the election with 304 electoral votes. Morning Consult’s data finds Clinton easily beating both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in the electoral college.
Kasich winning Ohio is huge gain for Republicans, considering none of their nominees have ever won the White House without it.
That said, I do not see him winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota as the map suggests. There’s a lot of blue in those parts and most of those states haven’t gone red in nearly thirty years.
I do agree, however, the Kasich camp would put a lot of emphasis on the Midwest. The extra time and money they spend there in the fall would force Democrats to play some defense.
Now for the bad news for Kasich believers. It’s always very dangerous when you give conservatives a reason to stay home (see John McCain and Mitt Romney as recent examples) and John Kasich isn’t exactly their cup of tea. From Medicaid expansion, to taxing Big Oil, to tone and temperament the Trump and Cruz delegates, despite evidence that Kasich is the best bet in November, will likely look elsewhere.
And elsewhere is probably the GOP’s best bet for victory.
My electoral map projection for April sizes up Hillary Clinton versus GOP front-runner Donald Trump.
It clearly shows, based on polling and a variety of factors in battleground states like Ohio, Florida and Virginia, Trump getting trounced 347 electoral votes to 191. It takes 270 to win.
On my map Clinton carries all three of the key presidential battleground states, Ohio, Florida and Virginia, plus Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
Frankly, I think Trump could be in trouble in Arizona (Hispanic voters) and Utah (Mormon voters) too. He is a very unsellable candidate come fall.
One thing just about every expert is agreement on at this point: Neither Trump or Cruz come anywhere close to beating Clinton in the electoral college.