“It’s the economy, stupid.”
The famous campaign slogan of Bill Clinton in 1992. The economy is always a top election issue, so does it favor Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump in 2016?
For Clinton, the good news is that this is not 1992. Or 2008. There is no recession, banks are not failing, the auto industry is not facing bankruptcy, the entire economic system is not on the brink of collapse.
Furthermore, inflation is low. Interest rates are lower. The reported unemployment number is half of what it was in 2009. Gas prices are where Mitt Romney promised they would be four years ago.
For Trump, the good news is that this economic recovery has been anemic. Today we learned the economy grew just 1.2 percent in the second quarter, a sluggish pace. That’s far less than the 2.5 percent growth predicted by economists.
Unfortunately for the Obama administration, it’s a trend. The economy has grown at less than 2 percent for three consecutive quarters. The pace of growth is the slowest in any recovery since the late 1940s.
The labor force participation rate is now just 62.7 percent, a 30-year low. And there is a continuing decline in the number of women in the workforce. Add to that the fact wages have been stagnant for years, and you have Americans angry about not being able to get ahead.
Clinton and Trump will debate the economy in battleground Ohio and other Midwest states for the next 100 days.
If Trump has any chance at all of winning in November, he must carry Ohio. His negative economic message may just bring in enough white working class voters to the polls.
Clinton, on the other hand, will keep hammering away that things are a lot better today than when Obama took office. She’ll hammer home her support for a big increase in the minimum wage, which polls show to be popular. Her attacks on Wall Street, however, may not be near as successful due to her ties there.
One thing is certain: Both campaigns know it’s all about the economy, and both believe the other side is stupid.