The memory of the late great Tim Russert holding up his “Florida, Florida, Florida” sign on election night 2000 still provokes scary images of hanging chads, recounts, protests, uncertainty and a controversial Supreme Court ruling that led to the presidency of George W. Bush.
Sixteen years later, buckle in. With 40 days to go until election day 2016, it appears Florida could, once again, be the decider of the next leader of the free world.
Here is our latest forecast model with 40 days to go until the election:
Click the map to create your own at CLINTON 293 ELECTORAL VOTES – TRUMP 245 ELECTORAL VOTES
Looking at the electoral map, the bad news for Hillary Clinton is that her once sizable lead in the electoral college is now so fragile that if Florida moves toward Donald Trump she will fall below 270 electoral votes for the first time.
For Trump, this is a dream map and exactly where he had hoped he could be after a disastrous August. Two states once thought competitive, Iowa and Missouri, are now solidly red.
Here’s a closer look at what’s happening. Note the three shades of red for Trump (pink less than 2% lead, maroon 2-4% lead, red 5% or above lead) and blue for Clinton (light blue less than 2% lead, medium blue 2-4% lead, dark blue 5% or above lead).
CLINTON: 217 FIRM (dark blue) 26 LIKELY (blue) 49 SMALL LEAD (light blue)
TRUMP: 170 FIRM (red) 51 LIKELY (maroon) 25 SMALL LEAD (pink)
This is a very troubling map for Clinton who has watched 250 “firm” electoral votes drop to 217 in the last ten days. And the number of electoral votes in the “small lead” category has increased from 22 to 49, meaning there are more states now where her lead is down to less than two percent.
The good news for Clinton is that polls expected later this week are likely to reflect her strong debate performance Monday night. That should help her in states she must win like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan where her poll numbers have dropped below a 5 percent lead.
For Trump, the number of “firm” electoral votes has increased from 164 to 170. In the last ten days he lost his tiny lead in Florida, only to offset it with new leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Colorado (a once Clinton stronghold). He is also leading in a congressional district in Maine giving him one more electoral vote.
When you look at the math, it’s clear Florida is going to be the most critical state for both candidates in the coming five weeks.
IF TRUMP WINS FLORIDA UNDER THIS PROJECTION HE WINS THE ELECTION WITH 275 ELECTORAL VOTES.
Most of the battleground states remain fluid, with Pennsylvania of special concern to Clinton. Her lead there is now 1.8 percent, and if that firewall falls, she is in serious trouble. Expect Trump to spend a lot of time and money in the Keystone State.
For Trump, if he cannot hold Colorado and North Carolina it would offset an upset win in Pennsylvania. These are three states where his lackluster debate performance could cost him in our next projection.
There are still two more presidential debates to go before election day. You may want to plan a drinking game on how many times Florida is mentioned in both. Right now it seems to be the key to the White House.