Ten days ago Hillary Clinton’s lead in the electoral college was down to Florida. In fact, we headlined our projection “Florida, Florida, Florida.”
Her once almost insurmountable lead had been erased after Donald Trump started delivering prepared remarks off the teleprompter, and her battle with pneumonia played into rumors that she was sick.
But that was then, this is now. One presidential debate later.
Here is our latest forecast model with 30 days to go until the election:
Click the map to create your own at CLINTON 323 ELECTORAL VOTES – TRUMP 215 ELECTORAL VOTES
Clinton’s dominate performance in the first debate helped her solidify her key firewall states — Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia — while increasing her momentum in Florida and North Carolina.
While Trump maintains a 1.5 percent lead in Ohio, recent polls have shown Clinton now leading there. If Trump loses Ohio and Florida, he has no chance — none — to win.
He must also flip North Carolina which Mitt Romney carried in 2012, but has been stubborn for Trump. And his lead in Arizona, which hasn’t gone for a Democrat since Bill Clinton twenty years ago, is down to 1 percent.
Here’s a closer look at what’s happening. Note the three shades of red for Trump (pink less than 1% lead, maroon 2-3% lead, red 4% or above lead) and blue for Clinton (light blue less than 1% lead, medium blue 2-3% lead, dark blue 4% or above lead).
CLINTON: 269 FIRM (dark blue) 54 LIKELY (blue) 0 SMALL LEAD (light blue)
TRUMP: 186 FIRM (red) 18 LIKELY (maroon) 11 SMALL LEAD (pink)
What’s most remarkable for Clinton is that in the last ten days she has grown from 217 “firm” electoral votes to 269 – just one short of victory. That is a very strong position with just a month to go.
None of these projections include the fallout from Trump’s lewd comments about women which went public on Friday. It will no doubt be a topic at the second presidential debate Sunday night. Needless to say, Trump needs more women voters in these key battleground states. White men, his strongest demographic, cannot carry Ohio and Florida alone.
Clinton is now outspending Trump on the airwaves in battleground states by about a 5-1 margin. In addition, she has a field operation in place that could be the best of any modern campaign. It is believed that Trump’s field operation is significantly behind where Mitt Romney’s was at four years ago.
There is no good news for Trump here as even Ohio seems to be back in play. He isn’t out of time yet, but if he’s going to turn this map around he must win Sunday’s debate. Trump likes calling his opponents “losers” and right now, he’s heading in that direction.
The best news for Clinton is that Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado have strongly swung her way in the last ten days. Those are her firewall states, and if they hold, she will be the 45th president of the United States.