There are a few indications that a blue wave could be coming in 14 days strong enough to not only keep a Democrat in the White House, but provide a Democratic U.S. senate too.
TEXAS
In 2012 Republicans won a double-digit victory in Texas, as they often do; it’s one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. But a new CBS News Battleground Tracker finds Donald Trump’s lead over Hillary Clinton, among likely voters, down to just 3 points, 46 to 43 percent.
The biggest reason why Trump is struggling in the Lone Star State is that almost twenty percent of Republicans there do not support him, while over 90 percent of Democrats back Clinton. That difference, and the possibility that many Republicans may choose to stay home on election day, is making Republicans rightfully nervous.
White men are keeping Trump ahead in Texas. In 2008 Barack Obama lost white men in Texas by more than fifty points, and Clinton is currently down 35. That’s a big gap, but the growing number of Hispanics, who are overwhelmingly supporting Clinton, could be very motivated to vote against Trump this year.
The thought of Trump and Republicans having to spend any extra time or money in Texas, or Arizona for that matter, is a bit mind boggling and proof that Trump’s ground game is extremely weak.
GEORGIA
There’s more bad news for Trump. A new Lucid poll in Georgia today finds Clinton leading by four points, 44 to 40 percent. It goes without saying that if Trump loses traditionally red Georgia, he easily loses the election. If he loses Georgia and Texas we’re looking at an historic landslide electoral victory for Clinton.
FLORIDA
The CBS poll also finds Clinton leading Trump by three points, 46 to 43 percent, in battleground Florida. This state is always close, and Clinton has had a stubborn lead there since the first debate. Trump has no path to 270 electoral votes that doesn’t include the 29 from Florida.
ELECTORAL MAP
Here’s our latest Electoral Vote Map which shows that Clinton could lose every state currently leaning her way — including Florida, North Carolina and Nevada (plus Ohio, which is leaning by .06 to Trump) — and still win with 272 electoral votes. Trump has to hang on to the states that are slipping away from him, plus break through in a state where Clinton currently has a solid lead. The odds of that happening are close to zero.
Click the map to create your own at