Florida. The granddaddy of battleground states.
It may be the “Sunshine State,” but every four years it is actually the “Where Presidential Candidates Spend Most Of Their Time State.”
With it’s 29 electoral votes, it is the make-or-break state for Republican nominee Donald Trump. If Hillary Clinton beats him here, he has no reasonable path to 270 electoral votes. (If Florida is somehow called early for Clinton on election night, forget what you read below because she will be the next president.)
With it, however, he has a chance at victory IF — and this is a very big if — he can run the battleground state table.
After a careful review of the early voting trends in Florida (the African American vote, for instance, is way down from 2012) and the latest polls, we are prepared to award the 29 electoral votes to Trump.
PROJECTION FLORIDA:
Here’s how the map looks with Florida in the Trump column:
Click the map to create your own at CLINTON 249 ELECTORAL VOTES – TRUMP 220
The remaining too close to call states are New Hampshire, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and 1 electoral vote from the 2nd congressional district in Maine.
A week ago Hillary Clinton had momentum, and the possibility of an electoral vote landslide. But those dreams ended when the FBI announced more emails related to her private computer server had been found and are being investigated.
It’s a bit unfair really. The FBI won’t say if the emails might be duplicates of what they’ve already examined. There is no indication that any email was classified, and even if it was, whether Clinton was responsible for it.
But presidential politics isn’t always fair (see Al Gore). And momentum for Clinton — from African Americans in Florida, to suburban whites in Ohio, to millennials in North Carolina — has seemingly slowed considerably.
The key to this election is this: The lower the voter turnout, the more likely Donald J. Trump will be the 45th president. And the Trump forces believe they have a viable path now to 270 electoral votes.
It appears almost certain that Trump will win Ohio. It’s another must win state for any Republican nominee. Despite opposition from Gov. John Kasich, Sen. Rob Portman and the leading newspapers, Trump has managed to connect with working class, traditionally Democratic voters in the eastern portion of the state.
So we add another 18 electoral votes to Trump:
CLINTON 249 ELECTORAL VOTES – TRUMP 238
Florida and Ohio together should normally put a presidential candidate over the top. But Democrats have built a huge blue firewall, with New York on one end and California on the other, and Trump remains 32 electoral votes short.
He leads in our polling average in Iowa, and we project he’ll win that state, but he has never been ahead in either Wisconsin or Colorado.
Even as polls have narrowed in both of those states, we still feel confident awarding each to Clinton.
CLINTON 268 ELECTORAL VOTES – TRUMP 244
Clinton is now just two electoral votes shy of victory. For Trump to pull off the upset, he must win New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada and the one electoral vote in Maine. There is no margin of error.
If he manages to run the table, he reaches the bare minimum 270 electoral votes.
His dream map would look like this:
TRUMP PATH: CLINTON 268 ELECTORAL VOTES – TRUMP 270
The reality of Trump winning all those states, however, is not something we can see happening.
While Nevada, and the one electoral vote in Maine, may tip his way, we are confident that both North Carolina and New Hampshire will end up for Clinton. She has had a persistent lead in both for weeks.
With five days to go until the election, our projection for 2016 is this:
CLINTON 287 ELECTORAL VOTES – TRUMP 251
Hillary Clinton, with her email controversy still ongoing, will end the night (or early Wednesday morning) with 287 electoral votes and on January 20th become America’s 45th — and first woman — Commander In Chief.
Twenty days ago, following the release of a tape from 2005 where Trump is heard making lewd comments about women, Clinton had expanded her lead into a possible electoral vote landslide. But all the national polls this week, after the FBI revelation, showed a momentum shift in Trump’s direction.
Independent and undecided voters, who had locked this election away for Clinton two weeks ago, are now changing their minds. Many African Americans and millennials have also been less than enthusiastic about her campaign. This could doom Democratic hopes for a takeover of the US senate.
In the end, the Clinton campaign had plenty of cash, a great ground game in battleground states, newspaper endorsements from all across the country, and even top Republicans publicly backing her. But Trump had millions of angry white voters, a vast majority without college educations, who still make up a huge portion of America’s electorate.