A lot is at stake on November 6, including which party will control the House of Representatives come January.
A party needs a majority of 218 seats to have control. Democrats today are 23 seats away from taking the majority away from Republicans.
With 79 Days to go until the election, here is the forecast of “firm seats” (based on a formula of top experts, polls, fundraising and political climate):
The Battle for the House – 79 Days to Go
DEMOCRATS 189 SEATS SAFE, REPUBLICANS 176 SEATS SAFE – 70 SEATS OVERALL IN PLAY
When you drill down closer, and study the voting patterns of each district, combined with incumbency and fundraising, this is a better prediction of what’s really happening:
Battle for the House – 79 Days to Go
DEMOCRATS 202 LIKELY SEATS, REPUBLICANS 200 LIKELY SEATS – 33 SEATS EVEN
Out of 435 seats, only a handful will determine who will take Speaker Paul Ryan’s chair in January.
Where are the 33 districts, where millions of dollars will be spent by both parties, special interest groups and candidates, located?
GOP PLAYING DEFENSE – HOW BIG OF A BLUE WAVE WILL IT BE?
A blue wave is forming as Republicans play defense in 31 of the 33 districts, Democrats in just two. The list above is what we will be watching closely on election night. As those districts go, so goes Congress.
History shows that the party of the incumbent president typically takes a beating in the first midterm election. In addition, President Trump’s approval rating in many swing districts is hovering around 40 percent. Republicans are battling historical trends with an unpopular president who lost the popular vote just two years ago.
PREDICTION 79 DAYS OUT:
Democrats pick up 20 of the 33 seats in play and win the majority 222-213. That’s an estimate of a total net gain for Democrats of 28 seats.
(For reference, Nate Silver now projects a 35 seat gain for Democrats in November.)
The political winds are always blowing and we will have another update next week.