The blue wave may sweep Democrats into power in the House, but is it big enough for the Senate too?
Political analyst Charlie Cook, described as one of the “best in the business” by both Republicans and Democrats, today changed his race rating for the Texas Senate race to toss-up from “lean Republican.”
Republican Ted Cruz facing a serious challenge from Democrat Beto O’Rourke in Texas is yet another sign of the momentum building for a “blue wave” in November. Cruz and O’Rourke will face off in Dallas tonight for the first of three scheduled debates.
He also moved the race rating in West Virginia in favor of Democrats and the Montana race from likely to lean Democratic.
Three Senate ratings changes today: #MTSEN: Likely D to Lean D ⇨#TXSEN: Lean R to Toss Up ⇦#WVSEN: Toss Up to Lean D ⇦
Full chart: https://t.co/qKOWMf9b82 pic.twitter.com/U25Rq8Kgbu
— CookPoliticalReport (@CookPolitical) September 21, 2018
“Generally, races in the Toss Up column don’t break down the middle; one party tends to win a majority of them,” said Jennifer Duffy from the Cook Political Report. “Over the past 10 cycles, no party has won less than 67 percent of all Toss Up races.”
Duffy says the most likely scenario now is that Republicans maintain a 51-49 edge. The second scenario is that Democrats pick up one seat and the chamber is tied 50-50 with Vice President Mike Pence breaking tie votes. The third scenario has Democrats taking the majority.
Turnout for both parties is key in battleground states like Arizona, where the senate election could be the closest in the country.