The Republican House majority continues to collapse, with Democrats steadily gaining ground toward erasing the 23-seat margin and ending eight years of GOP control.
According to an extensive Politico analysis, a total of 68 seats currently held by Republicans are firmly in play — rated as “Lean Republican” or worse for the GOP — presenting a stark contrast to the Democratic side, where only a half-dozen Democratic seats are in similar jeopardy.
The political environment has been jolted temporarily by the searing fight over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. But prior to that recent battle — which ended with Kavanaugh’s confirmation last week — Democrats had improved their electoral position since Labor Day, according to more than a dozen operatives and strategists in both parties.
With a month to go until Election Day, there are now 209 seats either firmly or leaning in the Democratic column — only nine shy of the 218 the party needs to wrest away control of the chamber.
The current congressional map shows a shift toward Democrats, who need just 23 seats to flip the House to their control.
The ratings, which reflect extensive reporting on the state of the 23-seat GOP majority, evaluations of both parties’ strategies, historical trends and polling data, reveal Democratic candidates have grabbed the lead in a number of House districts — including some with longtime GOP incumbents. Republican outside groups have already started cutting off funding to some races in which prospects had dimmed.
The GOP still has a path to keep the House, but it would require either a near sweep of the toss-up races or a significant change in the political environment in the final four weeks of the campaign.
A temporary uptick in Republican enthusiasm over the final week of the Kavanaugh confirmation fight could give the party momentum that provides that change. But, strategists say, it could just as easily fade, and the dynamic could revert to where it was earlier in September: with Democrats poised to take the House and wage an uphill battle for the Senate, too.
Nothing is particularly surprising about the struggle of Republicans in this election cycle. Typically the opposition party does better in the first midterm election of a presidency.