With just five weeks to go until election day, more House Republicans find themselves fighting for their political lives.

The independent Cook Political Report now projects that several personally popular Republicans who appeared to be defying the “blue wave” in Clinton-won districts, are beginning to see their leads erode.

GOP Reps. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), John Katko (NY-24) and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01) led most surveys over the summer but are now prime targets as their well-funded Democratic challengers become better-known and the Kavanaugh debate further polarizes voters into red and blue corners.

“It’s becoming harder and harder to see Republicans’ path to holding the majority,” said analyst David Wasserman. “In the past few days, multiple Democrats challengers have announced staggering fundraising totals of more than $3 million during the third quarter of the year, exceeding what many predecessors have raised for an entire cycle.”

Republicans across the country are now worried they could be “buried under an avalanche” of Democratic money that GOP outside groups can’t match.

After today’s ratings changes, there are 15 GOP-held seats in Lean or Likely Democratic (including seven incumbents) and Democrats would only need to win 11 of the 31 races in the Toss Up column to flip the majority.

Today the likeliest outcome appears to be a Democratic gain of between 25 and 40 seats (they need 23 for House control).


  • FL-26: Carlos Curbelo (R) – Lean R to Toss Up ←
  • KS-03: Kevin Yoder (R) – Toss Up to Lean D ←
  • MI-03: Justin Amash (R) – Solid R to Likely R ←
  • MI-11: OPEN (Trott)(R) – Toss Up to Lean D ←
  • NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R) – Solid R to Likely R ←
  • NY-24: John Katko (R) – Likely R to Lean R ←
  • PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R) – Lean D to Likely D ←
  • UT-04: Mia Love (R) – Lean R to Toss Up ←

A RealClearPolitics average of generic congressional ballot polls shows Democrats with a roughly 7-point lead.


Attribution:Cook Political Report
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