With the midterm election just weeks away, Democrats are increasingly concerned that President Trump’s numbers among Hispanic and Latino voters aren’t nearly as bad as expected.
And that could translate into a very mild blue wave on election day.
In a recent Quinnipiac poll, 58 percent of Hispanic voters said they did not consider Trump fit to be president, a number much more closely aligned with independents than Democrats:
- Democrats 96%
- Blacks 89%
- age 18-34: 63%
- Women 60%
- Hispanics 58%
- age 65+: 55%
- white college grads: 54%
- independents: 53%
- non-college whites: 42%
- Republicans: 7%
Many political science experts note that Trump’s unpopularity is far from enough to suggest that Hispanic and Latino voters will turn out for Democrats in the fall.
“You can use this as a big ingredient for mobilization, but you can’t just depend on it in itself,” said Victoria DeFrancesco Soto, a lecturer who studies elections at the University of Texas Austin.
Soto and others emphasize that Hispanic and Latino voters encompass a wide-ranging group with divergent attitudes on many issues, which means they don’t often vote as a unified bloc.
Experts say Democrats need to dial up their efforts on voter outreach if they want to channel this sentiment into actual support at the polls next month.
“If Democrats assume that they can expect higher voter turnout based on feelings of political threat or angst without investing in voter mobilization, this will likely lead to disappointing electoral participation,” said Ricardo Ramirez, Notre Dame, associate professor of political science.
The party has long banked on support from Hispanic and Latino voters, who could be key for flipping purple states and districts — but has struggled to actually get them to the polls on Election Day.
This is, in large part, because it hasn’t invested enough resources into actually connecting with voters, according to experts.
“Hispanics historically have a low voter turnout, and while the numbers suggest dissatisfaction, it may mean nothing if they don’t go out and vote,” said Sharon Navarro, University of Texas at San Antonio, professor of political science. “Both parties still have a lot to do to education and mobilize Hispanic voters so that they actually go out and vote.”
The bottom line is that if Democrats are counting on Hispanics and Latinos to deliver the blue wave to GOP candidates in states like Arizona and Florida next month, there is no evidence that will be happening.