Donald Trump carried West Virginia and Florida two years ago, but now voters seem poised to send their two incumbent Democratic senators back to Washington.
In Florida, a new non-partisan Quinnipiac poll finds Sen. Bill Nelson (D) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 52% to 46%.
“At this point, Sen. Nelson’s six-point overall lead is built on his large margin among independent voters, 60% to 38%,” said pollster Peter Brown. “If that margin holds up, the senator will be difficult to beat. Moreover, Sen. Nelson’s 20-point advantage among women is twice Gov. Scott’s 10-point edge among men.”
He added: “Nelson is just better liked. Florida likely voters view him favorably by 10 percentage points, and see Gov. Scott unfavorably by five points.”
In West Virginia, a new Gray TV poll finds Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) now 16 percentage points ahead of challenger Patrick Morrisey (R), 52% to 36%.
The poll finds 58% of West Virginia voters approve of the job President Trump is doing, while 40% disapprove.
Studying the polls closely is Trump, who according to Politico is now distancing himself from a potential Republican thumping on Election Day.
The president is telling confidants that he doesn’t see the midterms as a referendum on himself, describing his 2020 reelection bid as “the real election.” And he says that he holds House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell responsible for protecting their majorities in Congress.
According to one person with knowledge of these talks, Trump has said of Ryan and McConnell: “These are their elections … and if they screw it up, it’s not my fault.”
Other sources said Trump is sure to lash out at perhaps his favorite bogeyman of all — the media — for allegedly opposing him.
A Democratic wave would be especially awkward for a president whose brand is success, and who boasts that his record in office is unmatched by any of his modern predecessors.