After all the major polls got it wrong in 2016, about every political analyst in America is being extremely cautious this year in making final predictions about what will happen Tuesday night.
And that includes me.
Being interviewed by Mike Sauceda on Skyview Satellite radio today, I told listeners, “even with polling data and what you think you know about precinct politics, this is still a volatile electorate. The political environment remains too fluid in tight races to know, exactly, which side is getting out their voters.”
After 2016, it’s impossible for me to use my “gut instinct” (which had worked well having been around politics forever) to tell you definitively what will happen.
We can reach some facts, however.
Early voting is up across the country. That should favor Democrats in most races. Will it be enough, however, to offset the usual Republican majority of voters on election day?
President Trump has a low approval rating heading into a midterm. But unlike past Republican presidents, he’s like a cult leader even when the rest of the country is sour on him. Is that enthusiasm for Trump translating into GOP votes?
People vote their pocketbooks and wallets. Always have. And the economy right now should favor Republicans across the board.
The incumbent party usually does bad in midterm elections. And that should favor Democrats across the board.
Democrats are favored in generic polling to run Congress. But it doesn’t work that way. It comes down to individual districts and states.
So let me say this for certain: After spending days going over specific polling information and trends, it seems LIKELY that Republicans will keep their majority in the Senate.
It also seems LIKELY that Democrats will win a majority in the House.
And it is POSSIBLE that there may be some surprises on Tuesday night that none of us see coming.
In the Senate…
There is almost a zero chance that Republicans will lose their 51-49 majority. In fact, there is a greater chance that they will slightly expand it.
Democrats always had an uphill climb to retaking the Senate. Ten Democrats are up for reelection in states that Donald Trump won in 2016.
To reach 51, Democrats will need to defend seats in West Virginia, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, Indiana, and Florida — and then win Republican-held seats in Nevada, Arizona, and maybe even Tennessee or Texas.
It just isn’t going to happen, unless there is a gigantic blue wave approaching that none of us can see. (I remember the 2010 red wave like yesterday, but for months, after Scott Brown’s election in Massachusetts, you just knew it was coming. This election has not felt like that.)
The senate races I’m watching closely on election night:
Arizona: Martha McSally vs. Kyrsten Sinema
This is the GOP seat currently held by Jeff Flake. Sinema has led in most major polls, but Arizona hasn’t sent a Democrat to the senate in over twenty years.
EDGE: McSally (GOP holds seat)
Florida: Bill Nelson vs. Rick Scott
This is the nail biter race of the night. If Nelson can hold on, it will send a signal to Trump and Republicans that Florida is back in play for 2020. If Scott wins, look for it to be a better-than-expected night for the GOP across the country.
EDGE: Nelson (Dems hold seat)
Indiana: Joe Donnelly vs. Mike Braun
This should be easy pickings for the GOP, right? Mike Pence’s home state, very rural and conservative. Yet Donnelly has shown himself to be a very effective campaigner. This one will be close.
EDGE: Donnelly (Dems hold seat)
Missouri: Claire McCaskill vs. Josh Hawley
Trump won Missouri and it has tilted more red this past decade. McCaskill has shown herself to be a feisty campaigner, but the odds may be too staked against her.
EDGE: Hawley (GOP pick up seat)
Montana: Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale
Trump has beat up on Tester a lot the last two years, but this Democrat has proven himself to be a strong voice for his state.
EDGE: Tester (Dems hold seat)
Nevada: Dean Heller vs. Jacky Rosen
If ever there should be a vulnerable Republican it should be in Nevada. The state went for Hillary Clinton two years ago, yet Rosen has failed to gain a lot of momentum.
EDGE: Heller (GOP keeps seat)
North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp vs. Kevin Cramer
The most vulnerable Democrat in the country, Heitkamp has made some critical mistakes in her campaign and many can’t find any way to suggest she’ll hold on to the seat.
EDGE: Cramer (GOP picks up seat)
Tennessee: Marsha Blackburn vs. Phil Bredesen
This is for Sen. Bob Corker’s seat. For many it’s hard to imagine the edgy and preachy Blackburn in the senate, but it could be headed that way. Bredesen, while personally popular, has made some mistakes in his campaign.
EDGE: Blackburn (GOP keeps seat)
Texas: Ted Cruz vs. Beto O’Rourke
O’Rourke has been a terrific younger candidate, but the odds of him getting out the Democratic vote in a midterm still seem stacked against him.
EDGE: Cruz (GOP keeps seat)
West Virginia: Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
Remarkably, Manchin is in a strong position to keep the seat in a state Trump overwhelmingly won.
EDGE: Manchin (Dems keep seat)
When you add it all up… I have Republicans increasing their 51 seat majority to 53.
In the House…
Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to take back the majority in January.
Right now I have Democrats with 208 seats (just 8 short of the majority). Republicans have 199, with 28 seats too close to call.
Can Democrats win 8 of the 28? Yes. And likely more than that.
House Races I’m watching closely:
California’s 45th Congressional District: Rep. Mimi Walters vs. Katie Porter
Walters voted for Obamacare repeal and the tax bill, which hurt California by eliminating the federal income tax deductions for state and local taxes. Democrats are counting on this turnover.
EDGE: Porter (Dems pick up seat)
Colorado’s Sixth Congressional District: Rep. Mike Coffman vs. Jason Crow
Coffman has been an outspoken Republican against Trump, but that may not be enough in this blue-leaning district. Crow has been an effective candidate, and Democrats need this seat.
EDGE: Crow (Dems pick up seat)
Florida’s 26th Congressional District: Rep. Carlos Curbelo vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Democrats have eyed this seat all summer, with Mucarsel-Powell leading in the polls. But Curbelo, a strong Trump guy, has come back to make it a dead even race.
EDGE: Mucarsel-Powell (Dems pick up seat)
Illinois’s 14th Congressional District: Rep. Randy Hultgren vs. Lauren Underwood
This is a true battle over Obamacare. Hultgren has led the effort to repeal it, Underwood is a former Obama administration adviser who helped implement it. This one is close.
EDGE: Hultgren (Dems pick up seat)
Iowa’s Fourth Congressional District: Rep. Steve King vs. J.D. Scholten
King has dominated this district for a long time, but he’s so clearly a racist. Do Iowans in his district really want to send him back to Washington when Scholten is such a decent alternative?
EDGE: King (GOP keeps seat, but if he falls, look for a bigger blue wave in the House)
Kansas’s Third Congressional District: Rep. Kevin Yoder vs. Sharice Davids
Yoder is a vulnerable Republican in a district that went slightly for Hillary Clinton. Davids is Native American and openly LGBTQ, which makes her a really interesting candidate in Kansas. She’s raised money, and has been a really good candidate.
EDGE: Davids (Dems pick up seat)
Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District: Rep. Andy Barr vs. Amy McGrath
McGrath is a former Marine Corps veteran and the first woman to fly a combat mission for the Marines. Now, that’s a resume builder. Barr, a strong Trump supporter, has raised millions, but McGrath has outraised him.
EDGE: Barr (GOP holds seat)
Minnesota’s Third Congressional District: Rep. Erik Paulsen vs. Dean Phillips
Paulsen is a moderate Republican who has had issues with Trump, which makes him an endangered species. This is a district likely to flip.
EDGE: Phillips (Dems pick up seat)
New York’s 19th Congressional District: Rep. John Faso vs. Antonio Delgado
This is a district where Republicans are hoping to cut off any blue wave. Polls show Faso leading, but if he goes down, look for a Democratic tsunami happening across the country.
EDGE: Faso (GOP keeps seat)
Pennsylvania’s First Congressional District: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick vs. Scott Wallace
Fitzpatrick is a freshman moderate Republican who voted for Trump’s tax cuts but against Obamacare repeal. Clinton narrowly won this district in 2016, and Democrats hope to include it in their blue wave strategy.
EDGE: Fitzpatrick (GOP keeps seat)
Texas’s Seventh Congressional District: Rep. John Culberson vs. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
Culberson is in a district that Hillary Clinton won, but he has held the seat for decades. When Texas finally flips from red to purple, which experts believe will eventually happen, this district could be the first sign of it.
EDGE: Culberson (GOP keeps seat)
Virginia’s 10th Congressional District: Rep. Barbara Comstock vs. Jennifer Wexton
Comstock was swept into office in a 2014 red wave; now she might be swept out by a blue one. If Democrats don’t pick up this seat, my guess is Republicans will keep their majority in the House.
EDGE: Wexton (Dems pick up seat)
Virginia’s Seventh Congressional District: Rep. Dave Brat vs. Abigail Spanberger
Brat took out House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 GOP primary. Brat is super conservative in a state that is now leaning blue. This one is close, but if Brat goes down it will be a signal that Democrats are having a good night.
EDGE: Spanberger (Dems pick up seat)
West Virginia’s Third Congressional District: Carol Miller vs. Richard Ojeda
This is Trump land, and Miller should be a lock. But Ojeda, who is a Democrat who admits he voted for Trump, is an Army vet and progressive. This race will tell us whether a struggling part of the country has turned it’s blame to Trump.
EDGE: Miller (GOP holds seat)
My final count for the House has Democrats taking the majority with 223 seats, Republicans with 212.
That’s a very tight margin, but will still put Democrats in charge of all the committees likely to begin investigations on President Trump in January – everything from his tax returns, to agency expenses to impeachment (Robert Mueller seems likely to hint at Obstruction of Justice in his Russia report due soon).
All of the above contests can also help us answer Tuesday night whether a wave election is actually happening.
It will also confirm if Trump has coattails, and whether his style of fear-based leadership has more appeal than the polls are (once again) showing.
NOTE: I’ll take a look at governor’s races tomorrow, and those could be even more important due to redistricting when you look at 2020 and beyond.
