The control of Congress is obviously important, but you can make a case that the party that controls the battleground states during the 2020 presidential election, and redistricting in 2021, could be even more important.
Beyond the usual issues, there’s one other big reason to pay attention to governors this year: Governors who are elected in 2018 will almost all still be in office in 2021, when the next round of congressional redistricting starts.
In many states, governors will wield a veto pen over the new House and state legislative maps.
Republicans currently hold an astonishing two-thirds of the governors’ mansions across the country, giving the GOP an overwhelming advantage in controlling state governments.
This year, 26 of those seats are on the ballot.
The last time a big batch of governor and state legislature seats went up before a redistricting, in 2010, Republicans dominated them.
But this year, Democrats have a good chance to regain some ground, especially in Midwest states like Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, where Donald Trump won in 2016.
The most consequential governors race is in Florida, where a lot is at stake for 2020 and beyond.
Here are the governors races I’m watching closely Tuesday night:
Florida: Ron DeSantis vs. Andrew Gillum
Florida, Florida, Florida. This is the most important governors race of the night, because it holds the keys to 29 electoral votes in 2020 that Donald Trump, and the Democrats, know they need to win the presidency. Trump has been working hard campaigning for DeSantis, while Barack Obama has been stumping the state for Gillum. This contest seems destined to be tight, and while Gillum has been polling slightly ahead, the question becomes whether Trump’s fan base will get out the loyal GOP vote in Orlando and north as they did two years ago. This one is very important for both parties.
EDGE: Gillum (Dem gain)
Georgia: Brian Kemp vs. Stacey Abrams
Kemp really is one of the more despicable politicians in America today, attempting to put up voter suppression roadblocks wherever it might help him. Abrams has already claimed a victory by becoming the first black female gubernatorial candidate from a major party in the United States. This is still Georgia in a midterm election though.
EDGE: Kemp (GOP hold)
Iowa: Kim Reynolds vs. Fred Hubbell
Reynolds, who as Lt. Gov took over the top job when Terry Branstad become the ambassador to China, is looking to become the first elected female governor of the state. Hubbell is a strong fundraiser, and Iowa Democrats are increasingly convinced the entire state will see a blue wave.
EDGE: Hubbell (Dem gain)
Kansas: Kris Kobach vs. Laura Kelly
Even more despicable than Brian Kemp is Kobach, who just makes things up as he goes along. Despite being a Democrat, Kelly has attracted the backing of key state Republicans, including former GOP Gov. Bill Graves, endorsing a Democratic candidate for the first time ever. The state is in a financial mess, Kobach is unpopular, and Kansas voters have been seriously looking at a Democrat for solutions.
EDGE: Kobach (GOP hold)
Michigan: Bill Schuette vs. Gretchen Whitmer
This is one of the blue firewall states that fell for Trump in 2016. Redistricting is a major issue here, where a ballot initiative that would dramatically reform the redistricting process. Whitmer has a huge lead in the polls, and Democrats are likely to be in a strong position to redraw some of the GOP favored districts from a decade ago.
EDGE: Whitmer (Dem gain)
Nevada: Adam Laxalt vs. Steve Sisolak
Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval is leaving office hugely popular, and Adam Laxalt is hoping to represent his third term. But Clark County Commission Chairman Steve Sisolak has had the financial resources to wage a tough race, and Nevada did go for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
EDGE: Sisolak (Dem gain)
Ohio: Mike DeWine vs. Richard Cordray
This is an epic rematch from their contest for Attorney General eight years ago, when DeWine easily defeated Cordray. Ohio would be a monumental win for Democrats after the Buckeye State swung so hard toward Trump.
EDGE: DeWine (GOP hold)
Oregon: Kate Brown vs. Knute Buehler
This is the one state where Republicans are on offense with Democrats playing defense. Brown is the first openly LGBTQ person in America to serve as governor, but her approval rating in a deep blue state is low after a homelessness crises and a pension program with $22 billion in debt. Buehler is running an effective campaign as a moderate Republican.
EDGE: Brown (Dem hold)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker vs. Tony Evers
Walker has been a deeply divisive governor and Donald Trump’s sinking approval rating in his state isn’t helping. But Evers isn’t a particularly strong candidate and Walker has held his own. This could be a nail biter.
EDGE: Evers (Dem gain)
If you’re keeping track, I have Democrats picking up the governors office in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.
That’s just a huge victory for Democrats if those predictions are correct.
When you look at 2020 and redistricting in 2021, Republicans will be playing defense in key battleground states.
As in all elections this year, President Trump will loom large over the gubernatorial campaigns, and in many former blue firewall states, he is just killing the GOP nominees.
“If Democrats win one statewide race in what looks like it could be a wave year, they can assure themselves at least of veto power” over new maps in 2021, said David Daley, author of Ratf**ked: The True Story Behind the Secret Plan to Steal America’s Democracy.
Even if faced with one or two Republican state legislature chamber majorities, a Democratic governor’s veto could either force a bipartisan compromise or create gridlock and throw the matter to the courts.
Either would likely be a dramatic improvement over the Republican-only maps crafted a decade ago.
My Voter Guide for Congressional Races is also now available.
