A surge of younger and first-time voters heading to the polls in the days leading up to Election Day could mean there’s a blue wave forming that pollsters haven’t yet seen.
For months, polls have showed voters — both Democrats and, especially in recent weeks, Republicans — are enthusiastic about the midterm elections, excited to show up and cast a ballot.
Now, actual results are proving those polls correct. More than 34 million people have already cast their votes early or by absentee ballot.
That is a more than 50-percent increase over the total number of early votes cast in the 2014 midterm elections, an unprecedented spike in which voter turnout in some states is rivaling typical turnout levels in a presidential year.
Turnout is up among all age cohorts, racial groups and educational categories. Older voters still make up a disproportionately large segment of the electorate.
But turnout has increased the most among younger voters, minorities and people who rarely or never vote.
Among voters aged 18-29, turnout is up in 39 of 41 states for which data is available, said John Della Volpe, who directs polling for Harvard University’s Institute of Politics. For voters aged 30-39, turnout is up in all 41 states where data is available.
As a consequence, the 2018 electorate appears likely to be significantly younger and more diverse than the electorate that voted four years ago — both good signs for Democratic candidates.
Youth voter turnout has historically been dismal in midterm elections, which tend to draw fewer voters overall than presidential election years.
The highest rate of youth voter turnout in past midterm elections was 21% in both 1986 and 1994, according to the Harvard report, which cited U.S. Census data.
A poll released last week by the Institute of Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, found 40 percent of 18 to 29-year-olds say they will “definitely vote” in the midterm elections.
That would be historic, and could certainly tilt tight races to the left.
In a typical year, party strategists say the voters who take advantage of early voting opportunities were overwhelmingly likely to vote anyway. But there are increasing signs that millions of voters who have rarely or never voted before are turning out.
“These are voters who typically don’t vote in midterms,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston. “There’s about 10 percent of the electorate that’s completely brand new.”
An analysis by TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm, found more than 6 million people who have voted already rarely vote in midterms, and almost 1.6 million more are first-time voters.
The number of infrequent and first-time voters are both more than twice as high as the number of those voters who turned out in 2014.
“The numbers are insane,” TargetSmart chief executive Tom Bonier said Saturday. “There’s so much for a Democrat to be optimistic about — young people, women, first-time voters.”
Harvard’s Della Volpe said that some campaigns can juice turnout among younger and infrequent voters if they make a concerted effort.
But what’s different this time, he said, is that irregular voters are showing up in states that are not at the epicenter of the 2018 battleground — a possible suggestion that some larger change in the electorate is afoot.
“This is happening in Rhode Island and Massachusetts and places around the country that are not the targets of national Democrats,” Della Volpe said. “The chances I think that we see historic levels of youth participation are probably better than not.”
