A new poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading the potential Democratic field, and he’s giving everyone he’s seen in recent weeks the feeling that he’s very close to saying yes.
The Monmouth poll finds that among a possible field of 19 announced and potential contenders, Biden currently has the support of 29% of Democratic voters, followed by 16% for Sen. Bernie Sanders and 11% for Sen. Kamala Harris.
Other candidates who register support include Sen. Elizabeth Warren (8%), former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (7%), former Mayor Mike Bloomberg (4%), Sen. Cory Booker (4%), and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (2%).
The other 11 candidates asked about in the survey receive support from no more than 1% of Democratic voters.
The urgency of Biden’s planning has stepped up since the beginning of the year and serves as a window into the complexity of this moment in American politics, with Donald Trump halfway through his chaotic first term and a diverse and progressive field of Democrats already lined up to run against him in 2020.
Top positions for a campaign have been sketched out. Donor outreach has accelerated, with Biden himself telling staff at some events to write down the names of people who say they’re eager to help.
A list of potential “day-one endorsers” among elected officials has been prepared.
Basic staff outreach is happening.
Biden has even joked to people that he’s upped his daily workout to get in shape.
“I have been told that if it happens, I need to be ready to go with a moment’s notice,” one person told the Atlantic who’s been in conversations with Biden’s top aides.
“I’m 70 percent there, but I’m not all the way there,” Biden has been telling supporters.
That same 70 percent line has been circulating among Biden allies for weeks:
This looks like it’s happening, but don’t write off the 30 percent chance that it doesn’t.
In that time, people who’ve spoken to Biden and those around him say, he is still anguishing over both whether there’s a path to victory and whether running is the right thing to do for those closest to him, knowing that his record would be attacked and sensitive questions about his family would be aired in public.
“His heart is saying go, ‘It’s the thing you’ve always wanted,’” said one person who’s been in touch with Biden’s staff. “His head is assessing whether there’s an opening.”
Trump worries and offends Biden, and he feels a sense of duty to the government and the country to get things back on track.
He fears that other Democrats can’t beat Trump and aren’t prepared for what it would be like to take over the government in his wake.
Notably, no other announced or prospective candidate has any foreign-policy experience.
But over two presidential runs, and an additional two times he came very close to jumping in, Biden has struggled to put together effective campaign operations.
This time around, multiple top Democrats who express deep affection for him say they also worry that he is underestimating how hard a campaign would actually be to pull off—let alone the damage it could do to his reputation or what the exposure would mean for his family.
Biden is weighing his decision without any official polling or focus groups.
Biden and his aides think Bernie Sanders, who is a year older, might help neutralize the issue of Biden’s age.
Sanders is considered likely to join a progressive field that includes Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, and possibly Sherrod Brown sometime soon.
A Sanders candidacy would likely encourage Biden to run because he doesn’t agree with the Vermont senator’s policies and thinks they’re losing politics.
In a primary, Biden and his advisers believe, all those left-tilting candidates would divide support and leave him with a sizable number of more moderate voters.
“We’ve got a little bit of our own lane. We just need to go own it,” said a third person who’s been in touch with Biden’s top aides. “He’s well aware that this isn’t going to be easy, he’s going to have to fight for it, but I don’t think he’s viewing this thing through the lens of matching up against any one candidate.”