The estimated death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in the United States has been lowered from 82,000 to 60,000 after new projections scaled back the number of fatalities over the next four months by 26 percent.
The updated projections has also brought forward the peak day of deaths to April 12 where an estimated 2,212 deaths are expected to occur over 24 hours.
The new estimates were released today by forecasters at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation – a model often cited by the White House coronavirus task force.
The projected downward revision in the death toll coincides with comments from health officials and political leaders that cases may have reached a plateau in certain cities.
Those assessments in recent days, including an apparent leveling out in hospitalizations in New York state, which is the US epicenter of the pandemic, are tempered by a persistent climb in the death toll.
More than 1,900 Americans died over 24 hours on Tuesday, bringing the total to nearly 13,000.
There are now more than 400,000 confirmed coronavirus infections across the country.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is one of several that the White House coronavirus task force has cited.
Its most recent update now projects there will be just over 60,000 deaths by August 4, which is down from the nearly 82,000 fatalities is had forecast on Tuesday.
Health officials have previously estimated that between 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die.
The model also moved up its projected peak in the number of deaths to this Sunday.
The revision moves forward the projected peak by four days – suggesting the strain on the healthcare system will begin to abate a little sooner than previously expected.
Peak resource use for hospitals is predicted to occur on April 11 – the day before the peak death toll – where an estimated 94,000 beds, 19,000 ICU beds and 16,500 ventilators will be needed.
Despite the updated projections showing a lower number of deaths, health officials warned that a second wave of infections would occur if Americans relaxed their ‘social distancing’ practices.
‘What’s really important is that people don’t turn these early signs of hope into releasing from the 30 days to stop the spread – it’s really critical,’ said Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, referring to guidelines aimed at reducing the spread of the virus.
‘If people start going out again and socially interacting, we could see a really acute second wave.’
The pandemic has upended American life, with 94 percent of the population ordered to stay at home and nearly 10 million people losing their jobs in the past two weeks.
New York state remains the epicenter of the US outbreak with 5,489 death and more than 140,00 cases.
The state of New York accounts for more than a third of US confirmed coronavirus cases and nearly half the cumulative death toll.
The majority of those are in New York City where there have been 4,000 deaths and more than 77,000 cases.
New York Mayor Bill De Blasio told a briefing today that coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the most populous US city had stabilized and that the need for ventilators was lower than projected.
‘In the last few days we’ve actually seen fewer ventilators needed that were projected,’ de Blasio said.
De Blasio said there were ‘clear inequalities’ in how the coronavirus is affecting his city’s population.
Preliminary data indicates that black people account for 28 percent of the city’s death toll, even though they are just 22 percent of the city’s population, while Hispanic people are 34 percent of the city’s virus death toll and 29 percent of its population.
Hospitals have been inundated with coronavirus cases, which has resulted in shortages of medical equipment and protective garments for healthcare workers.
In New York, long weeks of fighting the pandemic were taking a toll on hospital staff, some of whom are coming down with the disease they have been fighting.
One resident doctor at New York-Presbyterian Hospital said he had been surprised by the number of hospital workers infected.
‘There are people around the hospital who are sick and now they’re showing up on our patient list. … It’s hard not to see yourself in them,’ the resident said.
‘A lot of us feel like we are being put in harm’s way.’