With 138 days to go until the general election, Joe Biden is probably wishing the election were being held today, while Donald Trump is desperately attempting to turn his fate around.

Based on our analysis, if the election were today (and this matches what we know Trump’s own internal polls show) he would lose to Biden – perhaps in an electoral college vote landslide.

Big states like Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, which many Republicans thought would be locked and loaded for Trump at the start of the year, are now too close to call.

And other states that Trump won in 2016, including Arizona and Michigan, are now almost certainly in Biden’s column.

Here’s a look at where the election stands today, based on the Real Clear Politics average of major polls:

This map shows Biden leading Trump in the electoral college 290-164.

He only needs 270 to win, so our projection would be Biden as president-elect.

The states in play are (in order of their size): Florida (29), Ohio (18), Georgia (16) North Carolina (15) and Iowa (6).

All of these states backed Trump in 2016.

Notice what happens if he carries all five of these states:

Biden still wins in the electoral college 290-248.

That’s a bad sign for a campaign when even if you win all the too-close-to-call states, you still lose.

So with 138 days to go, Trump must not only flip the five states mentioned above, but somehow get two other states back in the up for grabs column:

Trump needs to get back Pennsylvania and Arizona (both states have had Democratic trends since 2018).

That leaves the election at 259 electoral votes for Biden, 11 short of what he needs (Arizona’s 11 electoral votes would give him the win).

Biden was raised in Scranton, and has a special blue collar appeal in that state that Hillary Clinton did not have in 2016.

In addition, he has lead every major poll in Arizona all year – even prior to Trump’s lackluster handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and the racial unrest we have seen this month.

Therefore, we believe Pennsylvania and Arizona will both tip blue.

Giving Biden the win with 290 electoral votes to Trump’s 248.

That is the best case scenario for Trump at this point.

NOTES:

In this analysis we show Ohio back as a battleground state. No Republican has ever won the election without carrying Ohio’s electoral votes.

Trump is now in trouble in Iowa, which up until last month was thought lost to the Biden campaign.

Texas is running dangerously close for Republicans. If goes without saying that if Biden were to flip Texas blue, we would be looking at a landslide on election night.

Biden’s impressive showing thus far in Arizona and Florida is because of older voters, who represent an above-average share of white voters in the two states. Trump cannot be reelected without Florida’s massive 29 electoral votes.

On average, Biden leads among voters over age 65 by a margin of 53 percent to 44 percent nationwide, including a lead in every live-interview national poll reporting a result for the group. It is a substantial improvement over Hillary Clinton’s six-point deficit among the group in 2016.

It is also worth noting that Biden’s primary election performances across the country have been significantly better than Clinton’s were four years ago.

Of course, no one knows what the election will look like come fall.

The coronavirus pandemic raises additional questions about the eventual turnout, particularly if it leads to widespread voting by mail.

Trump’s handling of the racial unrest in the country after the George Floyd killing by a white police officer is viewed critically in every major poll.

His disapproval rating now rivals Jimmy Carter’s in 1980, when he went down to a landslide defeat.

However, the passion of Trump supporters to head to the polls remains high, and there is no reason to believe most Republicans will be inclined to stay home this election.

With 138 days to go until the election, we are calling it for Joe Biden (until our next update at least).