Three new polls out today show a continuing lead for former Vice President Joe Biden over President Trump.
The especially bad news for the president is that the polls come from three traditionally Republican states.
A Quinnipiac University poll released today finds Biden with a narrow lead over Trump in Texas.
Biden holds a 1 point lead over Trump, with 45% supporting Biden and 44% supporting Trump.
In June, Trump led Biden by 1 point.
Independents support Biden over Trump 51-32 percent.
Texas is considered a must-win state for Trump in November.
A new Garin-Hart-Yang poll in Georgia finds Biden leading Trump, 47% to 43%.
Georgia is another state Republicans believe they must carry to reach 270 electoral votes.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona finds Biden leading Trump, 49% to 45%.
Biden has led in this traditionally Republican state all year.
Investors who once overwhelmingly expected Trump to be reelected have increasingly resigned themselves to the prospect of a Biden presidency.
As the presumptive Democratic nominee builds a formidable lead in polls and predictive markets, a new survey released today by UBS revealed that 55% of wealthy investors and business owners expect the former vice president to prevail in November.
Although they’ve grown optimistic about the global economy’s trajectory over the next 12 months, 46% view the election results as one of their biggest worries, the wealth management giant found.
An identical number of those surveyed by UBS plan to adjust their portfolios based on the winner.
UBS’s data echoed findings by Deutsche Bank, which in July said market participants have grown “continuously…more bearish” on Trump’s reelection prospects since the pandemic took hold in March, and underscore how sentiment among investors has now shifted decisively toward his opponent.
“The surge in coronavirus infections in battleground states has placed him at a severe disadvantage as he prepares for his party’s national convention,” according to Solita Marcelli, UBS’ chief investment officer for the Americas. However, she cautioned against going “all in” on a pro-Biden investment strategy.
“It’s still too early to conclude with certainty that we will see a transition of power in November. Modern U.S. presidents have successfully exploited the benefits of incumbency in their reelection bids with remarkable frequency,” Marcelli added.
Deutsche Bank’s market sentiment survey found that a net 46% “felt that it was unlikely that Trump would win in November, a massive turnaround from a net of 93% thinking he would win back in February.”
The shifts detected by UBS and Deutsche punctuate the rough shoals the president has hit since March, as a confluence of negative trends — primarily the COVID-19 crisis and protests against racial injustice — took him from overwhelming favorite to underdog.
As Biden builds a substantial lead in head-to-head polling data and swing states turn against Trump, bettors on the major predictive markets all expect the Democrat to be inaugurated in January.
In fact, Biden’s estimated chances of winning in November are 63% on Smarkets — topping Trump’s previous high of 61% on Smarkets.
“We’ve never seen a sitting president seeking re-election drop as low as 34%, so Trump seemingly has a huge hill to climb if he is to secure four more years in the White House,” Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets Head of Political Markets, said in a statement on Tuesday.
Currently, markets view the prospects of a Biden win with a studied degree of equanimity, and observers have suggested investors can live with him given his comparatively moderate policy stances.
However, odds of a Democratic sweep of Washington are on the rise — along with the potential for big policy shifts that would mean higher taxes, according to UBS’ Marcelli, who outlined differences in the two candidates’ competing visions for the U.S.