Donald Trump’s reelection campaign is placing more importance on Pennsylvania amid growing concern that his chances of clinching Wisconsin are slipping..
Pennsylvania, which has 20 electoral votes, twice Wisconsin’s number, actually has been trending higher in recent public and internal polling Trump campaign sources told Axios, a welcome development for the campaign.
“We used to think Pennsylvania would be harder to secure and Wisconsin was in the bag. Now it’s vice versa,” a Trump campaign adviser said.
Trump won both in 2016.
If Wisconsin slips, he has to make up the numbers elsewhere.
The campaign sees the “path of least resistance” running through Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and some combination of Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Minnesota and Nevada.
The apparent gains in Pennsylvania come amid Trump’s anti-Biden messaging on fracking and trade, as well as law-and-order rhetoric that aides believe plays well with the state’s white, working-class voters.
Joe Biden was raised in Scranton, and has a special blue collar appeal in that state that Hillary Clinton did not have in 2016.
A smart analysis from FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich details how the entire election could hinge on Pennsylvania:
“Pennsylvania is so important that our model gives Trump an 84 percent chance of winning the presidency if he carries the state — and it gives Biden a 96 percent chance of winning if Pennsylvania goes blue.”
This is the ‘best case scenario’ electoral vote map for Trump, leaving Pennsylvania to decide election
In September alone, six of the Trump campaign’s top surrogates have been deployed to Pennsylvania, including Ivanka Trump, Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr. (twice) and Vice President Mike Pence.
Trump will make his third visit to the state this month on Tuesday, for a rally in Moon Township.
“Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are both in our plans, which you can tell by the travel schedules of both the president and vice president,” said Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh. “Just like in 2016, President Trump will win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania despite what pundits and prognosticators spout.”
Biden has a sizable lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a new poll released last week, and almost everyone’s mind is already made up.
The Quinnipiac survey — one of several this week that show Biden with substantial leads in battleground states — found 52% of likely voters supporting Biden, compared with 44% for Trump.
And 94% have settled on their pick for president, the poll said.
If accurate, that would leave Trump little room to maneuver in the race’s final two months.