The pollster who predicted the 2016 election result says Donald Trump is on track to win the presidency again bolstered by his ‘hidden’ support.
Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly says Trump is likely to be re-elected based off polls from this month that show him in a slight lead in key states.
Cahaly says those polls don’t include Trump’s ‘hidden’ fans who do not want to identify themselves by participating in polls for fear of retribution for supporting Trump.
‘I see the president winning with a minimum [electoral vote count in the] high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,’ Cahaly said on Hannity on Fox News Tuesday night.
Back in 2016 the Georgia-based poll group was one of the few that showed Trump leading in Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan on the eve of voting day.
Trump eventually won all those states.
Now Cahaly says Trump will win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia, where most polls show a stalemate or show Biden with a slight lead.
‘What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what we refer to as the shy Trump voter,’ he said.
‘There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily on the telephone. These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this … you’re not going to get honest answers,’ he added.
The question of ‘shy Trump voters’ is being debated by political analysts across the country.
‘There really isn’t any such voter,’ said longtime political reporter Jim Heath. ‘Some voters were hesitant in 2016 to publicly back Trump because most didn’t believe he’d win. That isn’t the case in 2020. Trump has the job and his supporters are quite vocal about backing him.’
Less than two weeks out to the election and some 35 million Americans have already voted, with Democrats far outnumbering Republicans in critical battleground states.
If that’s the case, Heath says a blue wave could be coming that will include Biden, and a Democratic majority in both the House and Senate.
‘Predicting a Trump win probably includes the GOP retaining a majority in the senate,’ said Heath. ‘There are no polls in close senate races which would indicate Republicans are holding back naming Trump at the top of their ticket.’
Trafalgar’s polls show Trump ahead of Biden by one percentage point in Michigan and four points in Arizona, according to October surveys.
No other credible pollster shows Biden losing to Trump in either Arizona or Michigan.
The ‘consensus map’ among all major pollsters show Biden winning with at least 290 electoral votes.
Even conservative websites were skeptical of Cahaly’s predictions.
“Cahaly is going way, way out on a limb here,” noted Kyle Smith for National Review. “Nobody else is saying that any of this stuff is going to swing things in Trump’s direction enough for him to pull out the win. Pretty much nobody else even thinks the election is going to be close. If Cahaly is right, he’s the new king of pollsters. If he’s wrong, he’s going to be a laughingstock.”