More than 4.2 million people have already voted early in the presidential election, vastly exceeding the pace of 2016 as Democrats amass a commanding lead in returned mail ballots.
In the 2016 election, around 75,000 people had voted early at this point, across significantly fewer states that had started early voting and reporting their numbers, according to the United States Elections Project.
The current national aggregation of in-person and mail-in vote totals includes more than 20 states that have started early voting ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
Vote totals are the numbers states reported through Monday.
Two factors help explain the massive spike.
Several states have changed laws since four years ago to either offer early voting or expand early voting periods.
In addition, as expected for months, more people are taking advantage of early voting, particularly voting by mail, amid the coronavirus pandemic.
“Yes, some of it’s supply, but most of it’s demand,” said Michael McDonald, associate professor of political science at the University of Florida, who manages the United States Elections Project, which is tracking early voting totals.
The strong early voting turnout comes as Democratic nominee Joe Biden maintains a strong national polling lead over President Donald Trump.
Some voters could be voting earlier because they’re wary about the performance of the U.S. Postal Service and want to get their ballots in the mail as soon as possible.
Yet when combined with the long lines at in-person polling places as well, it’s likely voters are more excited about this election than 2016.
Virginia has had the most early voters so far with 714,000, followed by the battleground states of Florida (701,000) and Wisconsin (545,000).
“Those are just staggering numbers to see that many people have already voted in these states,” McDonald said.
He called it “good news” for voters and election officials who feared a rush of mail-ballots around Election Day.
“We’re no longer looking at potentially this huge crush of ballots that are going to come in right at the end of the election.”
It might not be good news, however, for Trump and Republicans, who are lagging considerably behind Democrats in the number of mail ballots submitted.
Democrats have accounted for 55%, or 830,000, of the 1.5 million people who have voted by mail across the seven early-voting states where voters register by party: Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and South Dakota.
Republicans have accounted for 24%, or 361,000 mail votes, in these seven states.
Voters with no party affiliation have made up 21%, or 319,000 votes.
The advantage for Democrats comes after they requested nearly twice as many mail ballots nationwide than Republicans, likely the result of Trump’s months-long assault on the legitimacy of mail ballots.
“There isn’t a reason for Republicans to panic just because Democrats are ‘winning’ the mail vote,” said Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster, who has worked for Sen. Ted Cruz, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
He said the numbers reflect a mail-voting advantage for Democrats that polls forecast long ago.
“Every vote counts just once whether it is cast today or cast on Election Day.”
“That being said,” he added, “the concerning thing for Republicans has to be that once a Democratic vote is cast it can’t be taken back. So our window to message and convert any of these voters away from voting for Democrats is shorter than the number of days left in the campaign.”
Wilson said “right now the polls favor Democrats.”
The more their votes get cast early, he said, the less time Republican candidates have to reverse things “before all we’re producing is regrets from people who already cast their ballots.
In Florida – a state where Republicans historically have a strong advantage with absentee voting – 372,000 Democrats have returned mail ballots, compared to 197,000 Republicans.
In North Carolina, 202,000 Democrats have returned mail ballots, more than triple the 66,000 Republicans who have.
Thirty-five percent of North Carolina Democrats who requested mail ballots have returned them, compared to 29% of Republicans.
Even in ultra-conservative South Dakota, where Trump won the 2016 election by 30 percentage points, Democrats have returned nearly as many mail ballots (26,900), as Republicans (29,699).
Fifty-seven percent of South Dakota Democrats who requested mail ballots have returned them, a greater share than the 45% of South Dakota Republicans.
“Trump supporters have been listening to the president, his rhetoric about mail-ballot fraud, and they decided not to vote by mail,” McDonald said, adding that not only did Democrats request more mail ballots than Republicans, they are also returning them at higher rates.
“Both of these things are highly unusual. Usually more Republicans vote by mail and they return their ballots at a higher rate when it is also said and done. To see things turned on their head is very unusual.”
Ohio residents faced long lines at election centers as the state held its first day of early voting today ahead of the 2020 presidential election, according to multiple reports.
Hundreds of voters lined up to submit their ballots in Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo and other communities around the state.
Election officials were bracing for an increased early voting turnout and higher volume of mail-in ballot submissions due to the coronavirus pandemic.
As thousands of Ohioans cast the first in-person votes of this contentious 2020 election, President Trump’s campaign again canceled television ads for the state while former Vice President Joe Biden’s team extended its TV presence and Democrats launched new radio and print ads aimed at Black voters.
Biden ads are now up on local TV stations in Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati to accompany existing commercials in the Toledo and Youngstown markets.
In contrast, the Trump campaign, which had aired numerous ads on Ohio outlets over the summer that didn’t significantly move poll numbers, again canceled its spots originally scheduled for the coming week.
The Trump campaign has been dark in Ohio for several weeks except for national ads.
No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio’s electoral votes.