The U.S. economy grew at 7.4 percent between July and September, recovering about two-thirds of its losses during the first half of the year.
This is a number President Trump will ballyhoo for the five days remaining until the election, but the gross domestic product is now about the size it was in the first quarter of 2018.
Trump’s failure to negotiate a coronavirus relief deal with Congress before the election, record-breaking surges in new covid-19 infections, a tanking stock market, declining consumer confidence in battleground states and ominous layoff announcements appear to have taken at least a marginal toll on what has been his biggest polling advantage amid the pandemic: perceived competency at managing the economy.
Another 751,000 people applied for jobless claims last week, down about 40,000 from the week before, in the final unemployment report before the election.
Claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, for gig and self-employed workers, went up slightly, to 359,000.
All told, there were about 22.6 million people claiming some form of unemployment insurance.
The economy has begun to flash more warning signs in recent weeks.
Companies announcing layoffs in recent weeks include aerospace giant Raytheon, financial services company Charles Schwab, and Disney World.
An increasingly large group of people are transitioning off regular state unemployment insurance to a temporary federal program for people whose state benefits have expired — a sign of the growing duration of joblessness for many.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) revealed today that she and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have remained farther apart on key issues in their negotiations for a stimulus package than many believed.
A letter to Mnuchin, released to the media, casts doubt on whether a deal can get done at all during the lame-duck session.
Pelosi listed a litany of outstanding issues including state and local aid, school funding, child care money, tax credits for working families, unemployment insurance aid, and liability protections for businesses sought by the administration but opposed by Democrats.
She also said that she was still awaiting a final answer from the administration on agreeing to the Democrats’ language on a national coronavirus testing strategy – something Mnuchin had said on Oct. 15 that he was prepared to accept subject to minor edits.
Trump is trying to make this election more about jump-starting the economy than controlling the pandemic, which White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said over the weekend that they are not going to be able to do.
Joe Biden countered that America must get control of the contagion in order to revitalize the economy.
The Democratic nominee has emphasized the uneven nature of what he calls a K-shaped recovery.
The rich are bouncing back strong while the suffering of the poor only gets worse.
“Even if I win, it’s going to take a lot of hard work to end this pandemic,” Biden said in Wilmington, Del. “I’m not running on the false promise of being able to end this pandemic by flipping a switch. … We will deal honestly with the American people, and we’ll never, ever, ever quit. That’s how we’ll shut down this virus so we can get back to our lives a lot more quickly than the pace we’re going now.”
A decline in the stock market has been one of several “October surprises” in this election.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 943 points Wednesday, closing about 9 percent lower than at the start of last month.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Wednesday showed Trump’s advantage on the economy receding in a vital swing state.
In Wisconsin, 47 percent approve of how the president is handling the economy and 50 percent disapprove.
Last month, the same poll had Trump’s economic rating net positive by seven points.
Since September, Trump has also lost his narrow five-point edge over Biden on who is better able to handle the economy, with 52 percent of Wisconsin voters now saying they trust Biden more on this issue, while 44 percent say they trust Trump more.
In Michigan, Trump’s economic approval is in positive territory, 52 percent to 44 percent, which contributes to his narrower deficit in the state.
The Post-ABC polling showed Biden leading 57 percent to 40 percent among likely voters in Wisconsin and 51 percent to 44 percent in Michigan.
When it comes to handling the pandemic, Biden is trusted more than Trump by double digits in both states.