Bettors favor Joe Biden over Donald Trump in today’s election, with the Democratic candidate leading in bets placed in a majority of the battleground states that decide elections, two betting market aggregators said.
New Zealand-based prediction market PredictIt has Biden leading overall at 68 cents to Trump’s 39 cents, while British betting company Betfair Exchange gives Biden a 65% win-chance versus Trump’s 35%.
Will Jennings, head of public engagement at PredictIt, said odds have begun to “break a little” in favor of Biden, who leads in 10 of 14 swing state markets.
On the Betfair Exchange, Biden leads in seven of 12 swing state markets.
“Crucially, Biden leads in North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which sees him hold an Electoral College vote lead of 305 to 333 over Trump,” Jennings told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Friday.
Paul Krishnamurty, political betting analyst at the Betfair Exchange, said he expected Biden to win by a landslide, “with more than 330 Electoral College votes.”
Throughout the campaign, Biden has consistently led in polls, both nationally and in most of the battleground states.
On the eve of the election, RealClearPolitics gives Biden a 6.5% lead in its national polling average, along with leads of 2.9 points in Pennsylvania, one point in Florida, 6.6 points in Wisconsin, and 5.1 points in Michigan.
JimHeath.TV forecasts Biden as having a 90% chance of winning the presidency.
Offshore book Betonline.ag said last week the election has surpassed the Super Bowl in terms of dollars bet and will be the biggest decision in the site’s history since the Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor boxing bout in 2017.
“This election will be the biggest betting event in Bovada history,” says Bovada LV political oddsmaker Pat Morrow, “and globally will be the biggest betting event of all-time.”
Biden’s biggest fan could be a bettor in the United Kingdom.
Someone has placed a $1.29 million bet on Biden to be the next president on the Betfair Exchange, the world’s largest online betting exchange, where gamblers find other gamblers who match their wagers.
US gamblers are not allowed to place legal wagers on the election, but wagering on the election in the UK’s legal betting market is soaring, setting up the US vote to be the most-bet-upon event in history.
The identity of the bettor, who placed the wager on October 29, is not known.
They would win $696,170 profit on top of getting the original wager returned.
The $1.3 million wager is tied for the third-largest bet in Betfair’s history.
The bet could be a good omen for Biden: The 10 largest bets in Betfair’s history before now, all on sporting events, have been winners.
“A tiny difference in the odds will make a big difference in the returns of the big-money bettors,” said Pete Watt, public relations manager for OddsChecker US, which provides advice and information to gamblers. “Because of that, those bettors might wait until they’re convinced they can get the best possible odds on their bets.”
Operators in the U.S. are still offering skin in the game by installing free-to-play contests, since it isn’t technically “betting” or “wagering.”
At FanDuel, the “Bet The Ballot” contest includes “Who will win the US presidency? (Joe Biden: -175; Donald Trump, +138)” in addition to which party will control the Senate and other possibilities, such as “Will Trump win at least one state Hillary Clinton won in 2016?”
Players in these contests appear to favor Trump over Biden.
More than half of FanDuel participants heading into the weekend believed Trump would emerge victorious, while the majority of residents in 49 of 50 states participating in DraftKings’ contest picked Trump to win. (Colorado was the only state where a majority picked Biden to win.)