Four years ago, based on polling, trends and a states past voting history, JimHeath.TV projected a narrow Hillary Clinton win in our final electoral vote forecast.

While we correctly predicted her winning the popular vote, we did not see the complete crack in blue firewall states that propelled Donald Trump to victory.

A shift of fewer than 80,000 votes in three states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) — or 0.06% of 137 million cast — cost Clinton the win.

Trump won those states by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes.

Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she’d have won the electoral vote, too.

The point is this: Trump lost the popular vote by nearly three million votes, while barely winning the states that gave him the electoral college win.

That was then, this is now.

In 2020, the polling in battleground states has improved according to reputable pollsters (including the Fox News unit), the likelihood of any remaining ‘shy’ Trump voters is doubtful, and ‘likable’ Joe Biden is no Hillary Clinton.

The bottom line question when making our final 2020 forecast is this: Has Trump gained popularity in key battleground states, or can Joe Biden easily pick up 80,000 votes to flip back the Democratic firewall states, while perhaps adding Arizona and North Carolina to his mix?

Without any hesitation, JimHeath.TV confidently projects Biden will win both the popular and electoral vote in this election.

Let’s take a look at how we see the race on election day:

 

 

 

With the Democratic firewall states of Michigan and Wisconsin back in place, Biden is at 260 electoral votes – just 10 short of victory.

He needs to win just one of the remaining five too-close-to-call states: Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia or North Carolina in order to go over 270 electoral votes.

That means Trump has to run the table AND win Ohio, Iowa and Texas, which we have already tilted his way and added to his total of 187 electoral votes.

Things could get brutally bad for Trump if there is a blue wave sweeping across the land:

 

 

 

Here we have tilted the map to reflect current polling which has Biden leading in Florida, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

That would produce a landslide win for Biden with 351 electoral votes.

How confident are we in making our predictions?

Check out Biden’s polling averages this past month, compared to past candidates in the modern era:

2020: Biden+8.6
2016: Clinton+3.9 (won popular vote, lost electoral vote)
2012: Obama+0.3 (won)
2008: Obama+6.7 (won)
2004: Bush+2.3 (won)
2000: Bush+3.6 (won)
1996: Clinton+13.8 (won)
1992: Clinton+7.6 (won)
1988: Bush+10.1 (won)
1984: Reagan+17.7 (won)
1980: Reagan+2.2 (won)
1976: Carter+0.03 (won)

From this reality, you can see polling would have to be wildly off if Biden were to lose.

Our own JimHeath.TV estimate has Biden winning with 306 electoral votes, way above the 270 he needs:

 

 

In the end, Trump may hold on to both Florida and Ohio, while losing North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan and all important Pennsylvania.

As we begin our election night coverage Tuesday night, JimHeath.TV will do something unconventional, and project the states based on our 100 percent certainty of how they’ll tip.

So at 8 pm EST time, you’ll see states we are confident will go for Biden:

 

 

The states we project for Trump:

 

 

The Too Close To Call states (which will determine the winner):

 

 

And where our first tally stands as we begin election night.

 

 

Biden, based on our projections, will start the night with 209 electoral votes in the bank, just 61 short of victory.

Our final electoral vote projection mirrors what we predicted way back in April.

Joe Biden will be elected the 46th President of the United States.

 

 

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