Joe Biden’s coronavirus advisor has warned that the healthcare system will collapse and COVID-19 patients could die in waiting rooms if cases continue to rise in the coming weeks as a new model suggests that up to 150,000 more people could die before the president-elect’s January inauguration.
Biden has pledged to make controlling the coronavirus a top priority and is likely to push for mask wearing mandates and more fiscal stimulus to keep businesses and workers afloat when he assumes office next year.
But in the two months until inauguration day on January 20, skyrocketing infections could add up to 13 million more cases and 150,000 deaths, representing a potential 80 percent increase in infections and a 29 percent rise in deaths.
According to Reuters, the US could report between 8 million and 13 million more cases of COVID-19 between now and the inauguration.
The calculations, which were based on early November daily case count and percentage growth trends, also show that at the current daily rate of deaths, another 70,000 to 150,000 Americans may die between now and Inauguration Day.
As of Sunday, there are more than 245,000 COVID-19 deaths recorded in the United States.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has a similar estimate of just over 360,000 coronavirus deaths on January 20 without any changes in mandates, an increase of 117,000 from November 12.
Biden’s coronavirus advisor, Dr Michael Osterholm, also told Meet the Press on Sunday that the US is in a ‘very dangerous period’ and that the health care system is on a ‘tipping point’.
‘My worst fear is what we saw happen in other countries where people were dying on the streets. People literally were dying in the waiting room of emergency rooms after spending 10 hours just waiting to be seen,’ Osterholm said.
‘That I hope will not be the way that we finally decide to reduce our risk… I think it is the healthcare systems breaking, literally breaking, that will unfortunately bring us to a sense of reality of what we must do in the short term.’
Osterholm then predicted that health care systems across the US could collapse in just ‘a few more weeks’ if COVID-19 cases continue to surge.
The only ways to change the outcome, experts said, are for President Donald Trump’s outgoing administration to alter its strategy or state governments to introduce stricter and more coordinated measures.
Colder weather adds to the challenge.
But Trump has shown less involvement in the White House coronavirus task force in recent weeks as he focused on his re-election campaign and an effort to challenge votes in several states after the November 3 election.
On Saturday, Trump spent most of the day golfing and when he did address the virus on Twitter, he wrote: ‘Congress must now do a Covid Relief Bill. Needs Democrats support. Make it big and focused. Get it done!’
The lack of communication about what is being done to continue to combat the virus is worrying and is likely what prompted Biden’s team to call for an urgent response between now and when he assumes his presidential role.
On Friday, Biden said: ‘This crisis demands a robust and immediate federal response, which has been woefully lacking. I am the president-elect, but I will not be president until next year.
‘The crisis does not respect dates on the calendar, it is accelerating right now…. Right now is a moment for shared responsibility and shared action. Together, we have the power to rein in this virus,’ Biden said.
‘And I promise you, from the moment I am sworn in on January 20, I will do everything in my power to lead this unified national effort,’ Biden added.
‘The epidemic is going to be worse than it was in the spring, and worse than it was for the everyday American,’ said Gregg Gonsalves, a professor in epidemiology at Yale University and a health care activist.
On Saturday, Trump spent most of the day golfing and when he did address the virus on Twitter, he wrote: ‘Congress must now do a Covid Relief Bill. Needs Democrats support. Make it big and focused. Get it done!’
The lack of communication about what is being done to continue to combat the virus is worrying and is likely what prompted Biden’s team to call for an urgent response between now and when he assumes his presidential role.
On Friday, Biden said: ‘This crisis demands a robust and immediate federal response, which has been woefully lacking. I am the president-elect, but I will not be president until next year.
‘The crisis does not respect dates on the calendar, it is accelerating right now…. Right now is a moment for shared responsibility and shared action. Together, we have the power to rein in this virus,’ Biden said.
‘And I promise you, from the moment I am sworn in on January 20, I will do everything in my power to lead this unified national effort,’ Biden added.
‘The epidemic is going to be worse than it was in the spring, and worse than it was for the everyday American,’ said Gregg Gonsalves, a professor in epidemiology at Yale University and a health care activist.
Economists and analysts have been reluctant to calculate how the third wave of infection could impact the US economy if it continues unchecked, citing too many variables from the possibility of fiscal stimulus to renewed lockdown measures.
The economy is likely to re-accelerate next spring, many predicted, when a coronavirus vaccine is expected to be introduced, ushering in a new boom in consumer consumption.
Between now and then, though, the tone is increasingly grim.
Trump’s coronavirus task force has been superseded by a multitude of regional task forces, ‘which is probably the least efficient solution, but better than nothing,’ said Greg Daco, chief economist from Oxford Economics.
US states and cities announced a patchwork of new restrictions this week aimed at slowing the virus’s spread.
A White House spokesman said the president’s task force remains ‘focused on saving lives,’ and is ‘in constant contact with state and local jurisdictions and health care providers, and continues to promote common sense mitigation measures’.