If the election were today, Republicans would likely gain a couple seats to their already 51-seat majority in the senate.
The fight over Justice Brett Kavanaugh seems to have revitalized enthusiasm among Republicans, and stalled Democratic efforts in various states, including Texas, Missouri and Nevada.
A map that we had 50-50 just a month ago, now has a Republican edge – based on state polling – 54 seats to 46. That’s a gain for Republicans of three seats.
Red represents Republicans, Blue represents Democrats (based on recent polling in individual states)
Only 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election this year.
Democrats hold 26 of them, meaning they have been playing defense in a lot more states than Republicans.
And after the Kavanaugh hearings, the polls have tilted to Republicans.
Most dangerous for Democrats is how fragile their leads are in both West Virginia and Indiana. Losing both of them could increase the GOP majority to 56 seats.
The race is still tight in Florida, Nevada and Arizona, but we have seen an uptick for the GOP candidates in each of those states.
Democrats still have a lot of time to get some momentum back, although the reverse is true and several competitive seats may slip out of their grasp.
Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) announced today he has raised more than $38 million in the third quarter of the year, in a race against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).
O’Rourke said that the money came from more than 800,000 contributions. He has pledged not to take money from PACs in his bid for U.S. Senate.
While incredibly impressive, O’Rourke remains a distinct underdog against Cruz in a state in which no Democrat has won a statewide office since 1994.
The good news for Democrats, and of concern to the White House, is they are still likely to recapture control of the House.