An infectious disease expert who predicted the spread of coronavirus has claimed the epidemic will go on for up to six months and says it’s pointless wearing a face mask and gloves amid the outbreak.
Michael Osterholm said today there are nearly 135,000 confirmed cases worldwide and nearly 5,000 deaths, and that things would only get worse.
In the US there have been 1,731 confirmed COVID-19 infections and 41 deaths.
‘It’s just beginning,’ Osterholm said. ‘In terms of the hurt, pain, suffering, death that has happened so far is really just the beginning. This is going to unfold for months to come. We’re gonna be in some hurt for the next few months.’
Comparing the novel coronavirus to strains, Osterhol said this has the potential to be ’10-15 times worse than the worst seasonal flu season’.
The public health scientist opined that the precautions being advised by governments around the world are unlikely to prevent the spread.
Asked if wearing gloves and a mask is ‘nonsense’ he nodded in agreement and replied: ‘Largely’.
Osterholm said the ‘whole issue of using your hands and touching your face’ is likely not the main way the infection is passed.
‘The data is actually very weak that the virus is going to be transmitted this way.’
He added that ‘just breathing air’ is likely the primary way coronavirus is spreading but warned surgical masks don’t block small airborne particles from passing through and entering the nose the mouth.
Osterholm did hail the benefits of wearing more protective version of the mask but noted the availability is low.
‘The N-95 respirator is very effective, but the problem is that we have a shortage,’ Osterholm continued. ‘Hospitals don’t have the budgets to stockpile them.’
Osterholm – who is Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota – agrees with advice that those over 55 and with underlying health conditions should be extra careful.
He noted that children have been contracting coronavirus however they have not been getting sick.
It’s something that his research cannot explain.
However he believes that putting cruise ship passengers in quarantine on the vessels is a bad idea because the same air is being circulated via ventilation systems.
Osterholm, who in 2017 released a book titled Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs, said that he doesn’t think COVID-19 is being used as a weapon of war as some conspiracy theorists have claimed.
‘This thing clearly jumped from an animal species to a human probably in the third week of November,’ Osterholm said. ‘Pangolins, these scaly anteater-like animals, are a very good source because we have coronaviruses just like those in these animals, and it got into a human.’
In Italy 12,462 had been confirmed to be carrying the infection by Wednesday and 827 people had died.
Osterholm believes the battle against coronavirus ‘is going to be challenging, but we are going to get through it’.
Osterholm said the longer it’s around, the more people will get it but on the positive side, it means they will build up a resistance to COVID-19. It’s likely we will have to ‘wait this out’, the self-labelled ‘medical detective’ said, as a vaccine is not coming anytime soon.
Osterholm – who has served as science envoy for the Trump admin and several governors in the past – offered general advice to eat a healthy diet, take regular exercise and limit alcohol consumption in order to help build up an immunity.