In just 100 days, Americans will go to the polls and determine whether Donald Trump should continue living in the White House, or decide to turn to Joe Biden for a different direction.
JimHeath.TV has been evaluating where the presidential race stands in all 50 states, with a special emphasis on truly competitive battlegrounds.
We will present regular updates between now and the election.
Our second 2020 look at the electoral college map shows Joe Biden widening his lead, with Trump now playing defense in states he should be winning.
As expected, the vast majority of red/blue states continue to be dug into their partisan leanings, even in wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
States that have voted red since 2000 are likely to continue that trend, the same for blue states.
But Biden has pulled ahead in most of the true battleground states.
Here’s a look at how bad things could be for Trump if the election were today:
This map shows Biden leading Trump in the electoral college 406-132 – what would be a landslide victory.
In addition to leads outside the margin of error in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona, Biden has a slight lead right now in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa.
All of these states backed Trump in 2016, and are at the core of his reelection victory.
Trump’s mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, and the fact cases continue to rise, is at the heart of his political collapse.
There is also deep racial unrest in the country that Trump has misread throughout the year, leading to higher progressive activism.
Things are so bad for Trump right now that even if he flips the states circled above, and adds Florida, he still loses:
Here, we have Biden leading in the electoral college 284-225, with Florida undecided.
If you award Florida to Trump, he only has 254 electoral votes, still short of victory.
In the next 99 days Trump must flip his base states back his direction, plus add Florida AND more states to win:
Here, we have added Arizona to Trump’s column (he has been behind there in every major poll since January), but Trump is still short.
Which means he would still have to win in either Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota to reach 270.
Biden is holding strong in the Keystone State, and Trump has been unable to gain much traction in the upper mid-west.
He is spending millions of dollars in states like Texas that could affect the outcome in places like Florida and Pennsylvania.
The Trump campaign has virtually written off Michigan at this point, a state he won by a slim margin in 2016.
So, as we see it right now, this is the way election night 2020 will look:
Biden wins with 319 electoral votes to Trump’s 219.
NOTES:
Trump must win Florida to have any chance of being reelected.
Right now, due to his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, he is losing it by 5-10 points in major polls.
Look for his campaign to spend millions over the next few weeks to attempt to get him back into play there.
No path to reelection for Trump doesn’t include winning Florida.
The pandemic raises additional questions about the eventual turnout, particularly if it leads to widespread voting by mail.
The passion of Trump supporters to head to the polls is high, but he is still losing in about every demographic across the country.
We show a substantial electoral vote advantage for Biden 100 days out, and are calling this election Biden’s to lose.
