Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is going off Arizona airwaves after the Labor Day holiday, and may not resume television advertising in the Grand Canyon State until early voting begins in early October.
On Thursday, records filed with the Federal Communications Commission by Phoenix-area television stations showed that the Trump campaign cancelled all of its ads between Sept. 8 and Sept. 14.
The air time totaled approximately $580,000 in the Phoenix media market, which includes most of the state except for the areas surrounding Tucson and Yuma.
A campaign spokeswoman confirmed Trump was suddenly going dark in a state where he has consistently trailed Democratic challenger Joe Biden in the polls — a state that has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once since 1948.
“With a permanent presence in the state since 2016, Arizonans have heard from the Trump campaign for years and know about the wins President Trump’s America First agenda has delivered for them in just one term,” said Samantha Zager.
A Trump campaign source who was not authorized to speak on the record said that the campaign’s advertising strategy is following the early voting map.
Because Arizona early voting doesn’t begin until Oct. 7, the source indicated advertising here was being halted.
Zager didn’t respond to follow-up questions about whether the campaign intended to halt all advertising until early voting begins.
The campaign has not cancelled the a time it reserved earlier this year for the rest of September and October, according to documents television stations are required to file with the FCC.
For the week beginning Sept. 15, the Trump campaign has reserved an estimated $580,000 in the Phoenix market.
The following week, beginning Sept. 22, nearly $1 million in advertising time has been reserved.
There are no apparent reservations for the seven days beginning Sept. 29, but the campaign has about $900,000 reserved beginning Oct. 6.
FCC records also show that the Trump campaign stopped advertising on Tucson television stations about two weeks ago.
Arizona is seen as a top battleground state, with 11 electoral votes that Trump won in 2016.
According to a new Fox News poll, Biden is preferred over Trump by 49-40 percent among likely voters in Arizona. That 9-point lead is outside the margin of error. The Libertarian ticket headed by Jo Jorgensen receives 3 percent and 6 percent are undecided.
Trump won Arizona with 48.7 percent in 2016, topping Hillary Clinton by three and a half percentage points. Currently, a 56 percent majority disapproves of the job he’s doing as president (43 percent approve).
Biden’s lead comes from significant support among seniors, women, and Hispanics. He’s up by 46 points among Hispanics, 16 points among women, and 12 points among voters ages 65+.
In addition, Biden is ahead among suburban women (+15) and suburban voters overall (+7).
There’s also more party loyalty among Democrats, as 92 percent back Biden compared to 85 percent of Republicans supporting Trump.
Trump is ahead among Whites without a college degree (+11 points) and Gen Xers (+5). White voters overall split 45-45 percent.
More Arizona likely voters trust Biden than Trump to handle coronavirus by 17 points.
They also trust Biden to handle policing and criminal justice by a smaller 5-point margin.
The two rate about evenly on the economy (Trump +1) and dealing with China (Biden +1).
One in four think coronavirus is completely or mostly under control (24 percent), while 38 percent say it is somewhat under control and 37 percent say not at all.
An improvement in those pandemic numbers could help the president, as about 8 in 10 of those who feel the virus is under control back him, while about 8 in 10 of those who think it is not at all under control go for Biden.