For Joe Biden, the first presidential debate may well be the most critical moment of the fall campaign.
Ahead in the polls most of the year, including in key battleground states, Biden is enjoying growing momentum.
His campaign war chest is full, and it’s now being utilized in Republican-leaning states like Arizona and Iowa.
But Biden has never been the steadiest debater on stage.
A big night for Trump or a bad night for Biden could alter the trajectory of a race that’s barely budged during months of nationwide upheaval.
“This debate will be watched by the country as though it’s tuning into the Super Bowl,” said Mari Will, a debate coach and longtime Republican political adviser.
Or, as Republican strategist Michael Steel put it: “In a race that has been remarkably stable — in the face of earth-shaking events — the debates, particularly the first one, represent one of the last real chances to change the terms of the contest.”
Democrats agree.
“It is definitely one of the last things that could move the race,” said Jay Carney, former White House press secretary under President Obama and a former adviser to Biden. “The odds of it moving the race are not high. But there are not that many opportunities.”
Through 14 primary and general election debates in 2015 and 2016, Donald Trump emerged as the showman, with a keen sense on how to seize the spotlight, hammer home clear and succinct themes and discombobulate an opponent with claims and accusations that, while often false, are difficult to rebut in real time.
By contrast, Biden is the classic Senate orator, with knowledge of history and the nuances of policy and a respect for the rules of the game.
He draws on the tragedies of his life — the loss of his wife and daughter in a car accident, the death of his son from brain cancer — and tales about growing up around Scranton, Pa., to relate to his audiences.
He is quick with a smile, Reagan-like, that can defuse an attack or misstatement.
Trump’s debating style helped carry him to victory and can still be glimpsed almost every time he appears at a White House news conference or a rally.
But Biden’s performances have been inconsistent over the course of two vice-presidential debates and through this season of nearly a dozen Democratic primary debates.
Even his supporters say that, at 77, his voice is less firm and that he appears less energetic and passionate than just eight years ago.
Trump, in coordination with right-wing media, has highlighted some of those moments to try to raise doubts about his opponent’s mental acuity.
The big question is which version of Biden will be on the stage.
The first presidential debate featuring Joe Biden and Donald Trump airs nationally beginning at 9 pm EST.
The first debate always carries the most weight, with an estimated 100 million Americans expected to tune in.
Trump and Biden’s first joint appearance is especially significant in a year in which so many people are casting early votes by mail and in person.
If Americans see the vigorous, engaged former senator and vice president who has a firm grasp over both his own record and that of his opponent, adept at delivering the punch and nimble enough to adjust to this entirely unconventional opponent, we may look back and determine this debate clinched Biden’s election.
But if it’s the seemingly distracted aging candidate, sparking to life at some times but at others adrift in the tumult of an energized Trump, we could witness the race tighten just as early voting begins.
Biden has a mission to persuade anxious voters that he would be the steady, competent and experienced commander-in-chief who could lead the nation out of its three-pronged crisis of the pandemic, the recession and the roiling debate over systematic racism and police brutality.
Trump paying no federal income taxes in 10 out of 15 years, beginning in 2000, could help Biden drive home the contrast between Scranton, Pennsylvania, and Park Avenue that has become a key part of his messaging.
But he cannot play defense and appear rattled by an opponent who knows he’s trailing in a bid to keep his job.
The prevailing question in the aftermath of the debate will be, who won?
Expect both camps to declare victory.
But there is a sense that if Biden can execute a solid performance, the polls may lock into reality and the beginning of the end of the Trump era could be 34 days away.